Demonstrating vaccine effectiveness during a waning epidemic: A WHO/NIH meeting report on approaches to development and licensure of Zika vaccine candidates

Since its peak in early 2016, the incidence of Zika virus (ZIKV) cases has declined to such low levels that Phase 3 field efficacy trials may be infeasible. While great progress was made to rapidly advance several vaccine candidates into Phase 1 and 2 clinical trials, in the absence of sustained viral transmission it may be difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of ZIKV vaccine candidates by conducting traditional clinical disease endpoint efficacy studies. However, ZIKV is still circulating at low levels in some areas and is likely to re-emerge in naïve populations or in sites of prior epidemics once population immunity wanes. Therefore, the public health need for a ZIKV vaccine remains. To facilitate continued ZIKV vaccine development efforts, the World Health Organization's Initiative for Vaccine Research and the National Institutes of Health's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases co-hosted a meeting of experts in March 2018 to identify strategies to demonstrate vaccine effectiveness in view of waning ZIKV disease incidence. This paper outlines points for consideration for developers, regulators, and other stakeholders working towards a licensed ZIKV vaccine. These deliberations may also be applicable to development of vaccines for other emerging infections where the size, unpredictability, and ephemeral nature of outbreaks makes clinical disease endpoint efficacy trials to demonstrate vaccine effectiveness infeasible.